North
Korea's Workers' Party will open its first congress in 36 years on Friday, with
Kim Jong-un, the youthful dictator, expected to use the occasion to promote his
younger sister and tighten his grip on power.
Kim Yo-jong, the
29-year-old sister of the “Supreme Leader”, is presently a deputy director of
the party's central committee, responsible for overseeing propaganda.
Experts believe the congress
will confirm her promotion, possibly to the leadership of the central
committee. "There is a high possibility that Kim Yo-jong will be promoted
to the director as she has built field experience by helping Kim Jong-un over
the past three years," said Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of
North Korean Studies in Seoul, according to Yonhap News.
Ms Kim studied in Switzerland
at the same time as her brother and media reports have suggested that she is
already in charge of Mr Kim’s daily schedule, as well as “his fashion and
hairstyle".
Ms Kim is believed to have
become the number two person in the family-run regime. Her promotion at this
congress would help her brother to cement his rule.
In the run-up the event, North Korea’s propaganda
machine has described Mr Kim as the “great sun of the 21st century" and
hailed his achievements, including the acquisition of the "precious sword" of
nuclear weapons.
Weddings and funerals have
been banned for the duration of the congress, which is expected to last three
days, and travel restrictions imposed across the country. Security has
also been tightened along North Korea’s borders. The latter precautions are
designed to deter any embarrassing defections during the congress.
Why Mr Kim has chosen to call
the first party congress since 1980 is unclear. Some experts believe his sole
purpose is to use the occasion to tighten his grip as dictator for life.
"His only aim is to
consolidate his role as the new supreme leader", said Rah Jong-yil, a former
head of South Korean intelligence. "I do not expect him to announce any
significant reforms, as other communist leaders eventually conceded they had to
do, and the congress will revolve around Mr Kim.”
But some experts believe that he could announce reforms
to North Korea’s struggling economy, following China’s example.
Toshimitsu Shigemura, a
professor at Waseda University in Tokyo and an authority on North Korea’s
leadership, said there could be a shift away from the long-held
"military-first" policy. "Mr Kim is determined to increase the
power of the party at the expense of the military and I expect him to try to
weaken the influence of the National Defence Committee", he said.
"That would enable him to declare a 'new era' that is more focused on the
people".
Mr Kim has already sacked or,
in some cases, executed numerous members of the "old guard" in the
North Korean military, meaning that there is less opposition to his diktats.
Prof Shigemura warned,
however, that the army was unlikely to accept being downgraded, creating the
possibility of unrest.
Another possibility is that Mr Kim may order a fifth
nuclear test or another
series of missile drills to coincide with the congress, although recent
satellite images show only limited activity at the nuclear testing facility at
Punggye-ri
Mr Rah said he does not expect
another show of force during the congress and a "period of relative
calm" was likely. Professor Shigemura concurred, adding that Mr Kim could
declare that North Korea already is a nuclear power which no longer needs to
carry out tests. This, in turn, would enable the regime to seek to rebuild
bridges with China and possibly the US.

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